Demographic Crisis and the Institutional Capacity of the Western Balkan States

The Western Balkan states have for many years faced population decline, ageing and emigration. The purpose of this article is to determine how the authorities of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia respond to these developments and whether the measures they undertake include the adaptation of public administration. The analysis covers demographic and migration strategies, documents concerning the diaspora, the European Commission's 2025 reports and the SIGMA assessment for 2024. Government documents were used to examine political objectives, whereas external reports were used to assess their implementation and the situation of public administration. The analysis indicates that the authorities focus mainly on increasing fertility, limiting emigration, returns and cooperation with the diaspora. They devote considerably less attention to preparing public administration and the network of services for permanent operation with a smaller and older population. This creates a gap between attempts to reverse demographic change and the adaptation of the state to its consequences. The number of adopted strategies does not explain the size of this gap. The distribution of competences, political employment practices, institutional stability and the use of digitalisation are more important.